WILL THE GAZA CEASEFIRE SUCCEED?

Will the Gaza Ceasefire Succeed?

WILL THE GAZA CEASEFIRE SUCCEED?

By Ml. Luqman Skink, INX Prime news and current affairs editor

16 January 2025

Thousands of Gazans celebrated on January 15 as news spread that a ceasefire and hostage release deal had been reached between Israel and Hamas

Thousands of Gazans celebrating the ceasefire

Photo by BASHAR TALEB / AFP

A ceasefire and hostage exchange deal aimed at ending more than 15 months of genocide in the Palestinian territory has been reached.

The news was welcomed by thousands across Gaza who took to the streets to celebrate the deal.

Palestinians like Mazen Khattab who survived Israel’s deadly bombing campaign and endured multiple displacements said while he was happy about the deal, his personal losses were simply too much.

”I feel sad because I lost more than 200 members from my family, relatives, friends and neighbours.”

Under the deal, displaced Palestinians will be allowed to return to their homes in Gaza, even as 160,000 housing units have been destroyed by Israel.

Despite this, another displaced Palestinian, Maha Alsarak is upbeat about the prospect of returning home and rebuilding her life.

”The first thing I will do when I return to Gaza is rebuild my destroyed house. I will rejoice, cry and rebuild my home.”

It’s anyone’s guess if the rejoicing will be short-lived and more importantly, will the ceasefire last?

‘TOUGH NEGOTIATIONS’

U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the recently announced ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas

U.S. President Joe Biden delivering remarks on the ceasefire deal

Photo by Anna Moneymaker / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP

Outgoing U.S President Joe Biden said negotiations to halt the Gaza conflict had been some of the ”toughest” of his career.

The first phase of the deal would last six weeks and include a ”full and complete ceasefire, withdrawal of Israeli forces from all the populated areas of Gaza and the release of a number of hostages held by Hamas,” Biden said.

The as yet unfinalized second phase would bring a ”permanent end to the war,” and the deal agreed to was the ”exact” same as one he had proposed in May.

ISRAELI MEDIA: THE DEAL IS A ‘SURRENDER’

Ultimately, the success or failure of the deal will depend largely on the conduct and attitude of both parties, especially the Israelis who took just 8 days before they violated a previous deal, resuming their indiscriminate bombardment of Gaza.

Israeli media have declared the ceasefire as a ’heavy defeat’ and blame U.S president-elect, Donald Trump for ’forcing’ a deal they had refused to accept for a whole year.

A High-ranking IDF Official, speaking on the condition of anonymity said;

”This is an absolute disaster deal. For over a year, we resisted against a deal like this. It renders any progress we made in Gaza as useless and in vain. There is no mechanism to remove Hamas from power. According to this deal, the way it is structured now, Hamas will keep ruling the Gaza Strip. They will likely re-arm and recruit more fighters than before. We surrendered to the terrorists of Hamas.”

The overall feeling among the Israelis is one of bewilderment about the reasons for Trump insisting on a ceasefire.

The rationale being that there are many domestic problems facing the incoming administration, and that even after more than a year of massive amounts of weapons and resources spent, Hamas is not defeated.

Trump earlier claimed credit for the ”epic” deal, in posts on social media. His Mideast envoy was involved in the talks and consulted with the White House.

Asked by a reporter whether he or Trump was mainly responsible for the deal, Biden replied: ”Is that a joke?”

AFTER THE CEASEFIRE, WHAT WILL IT TAKE TO REBUILD GAZA?

A man standing atop a heavily damaged building views other destroyed buildings in Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip on October 7, 2024

A man viewing destroyed buildings in Khan Yunis

Photo by Bashar TALEB / AFP

A report released by the World Bank in April last year estimated that about $18.5 billion will be needed to rebuild the Gaza Strip. It said that estimate would likely rise because assessments still needed to be made in the enclave.

In January 2025, the UN said almost 70 per cent of all structures in the strip, including nine in 10 homes, had been destroyed or damaged.

Gaza’s reconstruction in 2014, after a 50-day war that killed about 2,250 Palestinians took 10 years to rebuild, even with relatively open access for reconstruction work.

However, experts have warned that conflicting plans for a postwar Gaza and a growing disagreement on the role of the UN could leave the enclave’s population languishing in misery for years.

TOO SOON TO CELEBRATE?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has held up the cabinet vote on the ceasefire deal that prompted premature celebrations in Gaza and was expected to take effect on Sunday, January 19.

Meanwhile, the Israeli military has stepped up attacks on the Gaza Strip since the announcement, killing at least 81 Palestinians in the past 24 hours.

The next few days will be crucial and we will all know by next week if the ceasefire will be implemented or there will be ’hell to pay’ as Donald Trump warned.

The Palestinians have collectively been exposed to a hellish 15 months, perhaps it is the Israelis that will pay a heavy price for not wanting to end the greatest genocide of the century, only time will tell.

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